If you didn’t think the Palmetto State’s 2014 gubernatorial politics were already getting hot and bothered, you might want to tune in a little more.
Just last week, a Democratic Governors Association poll showed presumptive Democratic gubernatorial nominee Vincent Sheheen had a decent shot at taking down Republican Gov. Nikki Haley. The poll showed Haley leading Sheheen by four points — 44 to 40 — but that the margin of error was plus/minus 3.53 percent.  More importantly, the poll showed Sheheen leading Haley 44-30 among independents. Because gubernatorial campaigns these days often are won because of swinging independent voters, the Sheheen campaign wants folks to realize he’s got an edge among a key part of the electorate a yar out from the election.
Not to be outdone, the Haley campaign this week released a poll that claimed — guess what — her lead really was 9 points over Sheheen, but admitted her favorability rating stood at 42 percent and unfavorability was 43 percent. Political analysts generally worry about a candidate’s re-election chances when favorability ratings are in the low 40s a year from the election.
What’s really interesting about Haley’s poll is that it came out the day before the non-partisan Winthrop Poll, which ensured political headlines on the release day of the Winthrop Poll would include the Haley poll. Nobody ever said Haley’s team wasn’t smart — timing the release of their poll to influence coverage about the Winthrop Poll was political gold.
Interestingly, the Winthrop Poll may help Haley sleep a little better for the time being. Her approval rating was 44.5 percent of registered voters, up from 40.5 percent in December 2012.  Her disapproval rating was 41 percent, down 1.4 percent from December.
Also interesting: Almost half of respondents (49.9 percent, compared to 53 percent in December) said they thought the state of South Carolina was headed in the wrong direction, but 48.4 percent (up 8.2 points) thought the state’s economic condition was very good or fairly good. Some 47.4 percent of the people thought the economy was getting better.
With all of this polling, it’s clear Haley and Sheheen have a lot of work to do to win. Sheheen has more challenges, since he lost by 4 points in 2010 and remains about that far behind in polls now. But he seems to be a more energized candidate with a crisper message in the year going into the election. He’s raising money and he is engaging voters in new ways, particularly since he published a policy book of ideas earlier this year.
For her part, Haley has two big things going for her: her laser focus on jobs and Barack Obama. Not a week goes by that her office announces a business expansion or investment and the number of jobs associated with it. In the year ahead, Haley also will intensify her criticism of President Obama and the Affordable Care Act, doing everything she can do to tie Sheheen to the “liberal Obama agenda that’s hurting families.”
But just as Haley’s campaign plan is predictable to political insiders, so is Sheheen’s. Just listen to his rhetoric in a Halloween letter sent to thousands of supporters:
“We know that we don’t want four more years of the same tea party destructive policies that have hurt our state. We want to move South Carolina forward with new ideas and investments in our future, while moving away from the corruption that has plagued this current administration.”
For the next year, Sheheen will try to tie Haley to the tea party. He’ll smear her with being asleep at the wheel and losing the private information of 6 million South Carolina individuals and businesses in the largest ever hacking of a state. He’ll vilify her for opposing $11 billion in federal money to expand Medicaid to help provide insurance for thousands of the poorest South Carolinians.
What’s going to be interesting is to see how the campaigns come up with new ways to counter all of the predictable attacks.
Sit back. Strap in. It’s going to get messy.
Andy Brack is publisher of Statehouse Report.  You can reach Brack at: brack@statehousereport.com.

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