Ervin’s Gubernatorial Bid May Have Perot Effect

South Carolina’s race for governor is going to get more and more interesting as November approaches.
While incumbents generally have an advantage in reelection bids, S.C. Gov. Nikki Haley has something else — a credible Republican opponent who is running as an independent. And she’s got the same Democratic challenger who narrowly missed beating her in 2010 when the tea party that lifted her to power was much stronger.
“We plan to make history,” Greenville lawyer and former judge Tom Ervin told us this week. “We have a plan to win this race and have every confidence that once people in South Carolina hear our message for change and reform that voters will respond and choose somebody who is not a career politician like Governor Haley and Senator [Vincent] Sheheen.”
Two words highlight how Ervin may be a real problem for Haley: Ross Perot.
Back in 1992, Texas businessman Ross Perot mounted an independent campaign for president that some argue put Democrat Bill Clinton in the White House. While Perot won no electoral vote, he garnered 18.9 percent of the national vote to Clinton’s 43 percent and incumbent George H.W. Bush’s 37.5 percent.
Could there be a Perot effect in South Carolina where the winner needs the most votes, not a majority?
Let’s look at polling, which is getting harder to do these days because more people use cell phones which makes it tough for pollsters to reach a sample that reflects what’s happening. (Just look to the Virginia primary for U.S. Rep. Eric Cantor where pollsters missed the victory of a challenger by double digits.)
A May Palmetto Poll by Clemson of Republican primary voters shows that 80 percent believed Haley was doing a good or excellent job. While not unexpected, the numbers show that 20 percent of Republican voters — Haley’s base — didn’t think she was doing a good job. The April Winthrop Poll of all registered voters showed Haley had a 49.3 percent approval rating, compared to a 39.6 percent disapproval rating with 10.2 percent saying they didn’t know how Haley was handling her job or they didn’t answer the question.
Internal polls by the Sheheen campaign reportedly show the race neck-and-neck. A memo obtained by Statehouse Report highlighted Haley’s weaknesses as poor responses to a data breach that resulted in identity theft for virtually every South Carolinian as well as crises involving a tuberculosis outbreak and dealing with winter storms.
In 2010, 1.3 million people voted in the S.C. governor’s race. Haley got 690,525 votes (51.4 percent) to Sheheen’s 630,534 votes (46.9 percent). Third-party candidate Morgan Bruce Reeves and write-in candidates garnered the remaining 1.7 percent of votes.
In 2014, Haley and Sheheen will again face Reeves as well as Libertarian Steve French and Ervin.
So let’s do some math. If you assume that French, Reeves and write-ins will get about the same as in 2010, Ervin could have a real impact if he took 5 percent of voters away from Haley. In 2010, that would have been slightly more than 65,000 voters, which would have made Sheheen the lead vote-getter.
“What people are responding to is that I’m independent,” Ervin said. “People are tired of both political parties and tired of career politicians. … As I travel the state, I’m hearing more and more frustration with the status quo politicians and particularly with the political parties.”
Bottom line: Ervin, who turned in more than twice the number of petition names to get on the ballot than he needed, has a compelling message. He says he’s in the race to win. But if history is any guide, the real battle will be between the Democratic and Republican standard bearers.
Watch out, however, for a new Perot effect. If frustrated voters, particularly those in the GOP-rich Upstate where Ervin makes his home — see him as a real alternative because they can’t hold their nose to vote for Sheheen, Ervin may undermine Haley’s re-election bid.
Andy Brack is editor and publisher of Statehouse Report. You can send your letters to:  brack@statehousereport.com.