Could Democrats and Independents be a Secret GOP Weapon?

Independents and Democrats may be a secret weapon for statewide Republicans who don’t kowtow to the freak show of tea party politics in the June 10 primary elections. Just look at the U.S. Senate race for a six-year term. Five right-wing challengers face U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, who is no slouch as a conservative but who is known for reasonable bipartisan tendencies (which got him in trouble with conservatives in the first place). Graham, with millions in the bank, is airing especially effective campaign ads that appeal to voters across the spectrum. A good number of thinking independents and Democrats may figure that a vote for Graham is a vote for normalcy. Instead of staying home or voting in the Democratic primary, they may head to the polls to keep Graham in the general election in November. That doesn’t mean they’ll vote for Graham in November, but the lure of sending a clear message that thumps the tea party may be just too much, as it was in recent primary elections in North Carolina, Georgia and Kentucky. Even without Democrats and independents, Graham may beat his challengers without a runoff, according to many analysts. Another reason that Democrats, in particular, might be inclined to jump ship in the primary is that its party candidates — state Sen. Brad Hutto of Orangeburg and relative unknown Jay Stamper of Columbia — haven’t been much in the media. Hutto is a latecomer to the race, brought in to be a viable candidate to Stamper, who has faced controversies that have mainstream Democrats worried he could be another Alvin Greene. (Greene, you may remember, was the unknown Democrat with several problems who allowed Jim DeMint to coast to victory in 2010). Many expect Hutto, based on his statewide leadership through the years, to prevail this year with little trouble. “The conspiracy theory never plays out,” says Republican consultant Wesley Donehue of Columbia. “It’s hard enough getting voters to turn out in primaries,” adding that non-Republican voters generally wouldn’t turn out for a primary they weren’t used to voting in just to mess with election results. Another analyst noted that in fending off conservatives in the primary, Graham has highlighted some conservative messages which may have diminished his appeal to moderates. But historian Jack Bass of Charleston offers a different perspective. “The big question, of course, is whether Graham has to face a runoff.  Dems may save him from one, and he’d  likely  be the winner.” Quite simply, Republicans have a much more interesting ballot in June than Democrats, who have only three statewide primaries. The GOP is offering seven primary battles, plus ballot questions on abortion and getting rid of income taxes added to lure voters to the GOP primary. Other races may draw Democrats and independents to the Republican primary: Lieutenant governor: Former Attorney General Henry McMaster entered the fray late in a race that also features a Haley-picked candidate, businessman Pat McKinney, as well as Mike Campbell and Ray Moore. McMaster, a fixture in South Carolina politics, has good name recognition and solid service that might attract crossover voters. The winner of the primary will face state Rep. Bakari Sellers, D-Bamberg, in the fall. State superintendent: This relatively low-key GOP race to head the state’s public schools has a mix of eight candidates. Of all in the race, former state Rep. Molly Spearman of Greenwood is recognized as an education leader and moderate to some of the wacky ideas coming from most of the rest of the candidates. Her leading challengers are Sally Atwater of Walterboro, wife of the late Lee Atwater, and Meka Childs, a former state Education Department official under current Superintendent Mick Zais, who is not running for re-election. Other races to watch include the race for the unexpired U.S. Senate seat now held by U.S. Sen. Tim Scott, who faces a relative unknown. Democrats have three primary candidates but none with statewide recognition. Also watch the GOP primary for Commissioner of Agriculture. Incumbent Hugh Weathers faces a guy with the coolest political name ever — Joe Farmer of Greenville. Andy Brack, editor and publisher of Statehouse Report, can be reached at: brack@statehousereport.com.