Charleston Is A Battleground County

Every day, we hear about the latest polls in the “battleground states” in the Presidential race – those which are evenly divided between likely Republican and Democrat voters. While South Carolina is clearly a “red” Republican state, which Donald Trump leads by 13 points in the latest poll, Charleston is an evenly-divided county.
While Democrats currently have a 5-4 advantage on Charleston County Council, two of those seats are in districts which Mitt Romney won in 2012. In the 2014 general election, Republicans won 7 of 9 contested county-wide elections, including Register of Deeds (RMC) supervisor Charlie Lybrand in a narrow margin.
The 2016 Presidential primary contests show momentum for the Republicans. On Feb. 20, 54,625 voters turned out to vote in the Republican primary, a record high for either party in Charleston County. Only 40, 183 voters turned out in the Feb. 27 Democrat Presidential primary, a 20% decline from the 2008 primary between President Obama and then Sen. Hillary Clinton.
There are some noteworthy races in Charleston County on the Nov. 8 ballot. One of the most interesting contests is in Charleston County Council District 7 in West Ashley, in which Republican Brantley Moody faces Democrat Ruth Jordan. Three-term incumbent Democrat Colleen Condon decided not to seek re-election. A Moody victory would give Republicans the majority on County Council for the first time since 2006.
Republicans have an opportunity to capture three state House of Representatives seats currently held by Democrats. Republican challenger Lee Edwards faces incumbent Rep. Leon Stavrinakis in a mostly West Ashley district which Mitt Romney carried by more than 1200 votes in 2012. Carroll O’Neal is challenging Rep. Robert Brown in a district which includes several West Ashley neighborhoods along Bees Ferry Rd. in a Republican-trending district. Republican Lin Bennett is heavily favored against Bob Aubin in an open seat formerly held by Speaker Bobby Harrell, who resigned a month before the 2014 election.
There are two county-wide contested elections. State Representative Mary Tinkler, a West Ashley native, faces 20-year incumbent Andy Smith in the Treasurer’s race. Auditor Peter Tecklenburg, the only Democrat who currently holds a county-wide office, is being challenged by former Charleston County School Board member Elizabeth Moffly. Moffly asserts that the Auditor’s office is partly responsible for the school district’s recent $18 Million deficit for failing to report revenue receipts.
The Charleston County Republican Party recently opened its election headquarters at 1654 Sam Rittenberg Blvd. in Village Square Shopping Center. The headliners for the opening were Lt. Gov. Henry McMaster and Rep. Mark Sanford.
An X-factor in the races involving Charleston County and West Ashley candidates is the voter turnout for Donald Trump. As the Trump co-chair Charleston County in the Feb. 20 primary, I saw first-hand that Trump supporters are people with little connection to the political parties. Most of the Trump volunteers had never been involved with a political campaign before. He is very popular with police officers, firefighters, and blue-collar workers. He has gotten the attention of people who have not voted in a long time with his America First economic and foreign policy plans.
Lt. Gov. Henry McMaster is playing a pivotal role in turning out the Trump voters. When Sen. Lindsey Graham suspended his Presidential campaign in Dec. 2015, McMaster was quick to hop on the Trump Train. He noted at the time that Trump was the only candidate who could expand the Republican Party voter base.
McMaster, a likely candidate for Governor in 2016, calls Trump an unconventional candidate who is running an unconventional campaign. He says that the first thing that caught his attention was the size and intensity of Trump rallies. While Sen. Graham, Jeb Bush and other candidates were holding South Carolina events with hundreds of supporters, Trump was drawing thousands. He cited an event in Gilbert (Lexington County) in which the line of cars was more than a mile long.
The Trump vote in Charleston County will be a big factor in who wins the contested elections. I predict that it will be high and that down-ticket Republicans will have a good night on Nov. 8.
John Steinberger is the former chairman of the Charleston County Republican Party, a leading Fair Tax advocate, and a West Ashley resident. He can be reached at John.steinberger@scfairtax.org.